Food prices have become a significant concern for Nigerian households. By September 2024, the cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice —a Nigerian favourite for a family of five— had risen to ₦21,600; about 30% of the new minimum wage (₦70,000).
Nigerians have been navigating fluctuating food costs as prices soar and fall, influenced by a blend of factors—some within reach like local production costs and government interventions, and others beyond control, such as global commodity prices, currency devaluation, and climate conditions.
Whether you’re buying a loaf of bread or a bag of rice, you must have noticed the differences in price tags, and these changes have impacted nearly everyone’s budget.
Let’s take a closer look at how food prices have moved from January till date, why they’ve moved the way they have, and what this means for the average Nigerian.
Q1
January opened on a high note—not for our wallets, but for food prices. After the inflationary pressures of 2023, driven by currency fluctuations, fuel price hikes, and global disruptions, Nigerians were already feeling the pinch. The ripple effect of the 2023 policies that aimed to curb inflation took time to settle, leaving us with elevated prices for basic staples like rice, maize, and cooking oil.
A report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in January 2024 showed that food inflation remained in double digits, with year-on-year food inflation standing at 35.41%. Prices of commodities saw a noticeable rise compared to the same period the previous year. For instance, a bag of rice that cost around ₦35,000 in December 2023 shot up to over ₦40,000 in January 2024.
Several culprits contributed to this price surge, some more familiar than others. Key among them were:
- Fuel Prices: Following the subsidy removal, fuel prices skyrocketed, which in turn raised the cost of transportation—essential for moving food from farms to markets.
- Foreign Exchange Fluctuations: The naira’s weakening continued to push up the cost of imported food items like wheat, leading to higher prices for bread and pasta.
- Climate Issues: Unpredictable weather patterns disrupted harvests in some parts of the country, particularly for crops like maize and tomatoes. In regions with flooding, food production took a significant hit.
Mid-year Stabilisation: did it get better?
By the time we reached mid-year, there were some signs of stabilisation. While the economy remained tough, certain interventions from the government, such as easing import restrictions on some agricultural products and pushing for improved agricultural yields, began to show results. The price hikes slowed down, but they didn’t reverse.
In May and June, for example, prices plateaued somewhat. This period also coincided with the major harvest season for certain staples like maize and millet, allowing some relief in markets. For example, maize prices, which had climbed to nearly ₦300 per kg in March, dropped slightly to around ₦270 per kg by June. The impact was felt but wasn’t nearly enough to offset the earlier surge.
September: a mixed bag
As we stepped into the third quarter, the food price situation became a mixed bag. While some commodities like yams and vegetables experienced a reduction in prices thanks to improved harvests, others remained stubbornly high. Items like wheat, dairy, and imported goods continued to rise in cost, reflecting global trends. Global wheat prices remained volatile due to geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions.
The consumer price index (CPI) data for September 2024 highlighted that the food inflation rate stood at around 21.8%, only marginally lower than January. Paddy rice, a staple for many Nigerian households, was still priced 15% higher than it was in January. On the other hand, local produce like cassava and garri saw price drops in many markets, providing some relief to consumers.
What’s next for food prices?
Looking ahead, it’s hard to predict exactly where food prices will go in the final quarter of 2024. Typically, higher festive demands on food items mean that some of the prices will rise. Also, bulk purchases by people stocking up ahead of a long January can influence prices.
Beyond the citizens, further currency fluctuations could worsen the situation. So long as the factors driving these price changes don’t improve, pre-May 2023 prices will not be achieved.
In addition, consider that climate change continues to make weather unpredictable with farmers unable to meet production levels while demand and the population grow. There are also global supply chain disruptions that show little sign of easing.
However, with ongoing efforts to improve local food production and increased focus on boosting agricultural output, there is hope that prices may stabilise further. Initiatives aimed at reducing post-harvest losses and improving food storage infrastructure could play a big role in making food more affordable for Nigerians in the long run.
What does this mean for you?
For the average Nigerian, navigating the food price landscape has become an exercise in budgeting acrobatics. It’s a constant battle of comparing prices across markets, cutting back on certain items, and finding creative ways to stretch each naira.
Yet, there is a silver; farmers are beginning to adopt more sustainable practices and better crop management techniques, which could lead to increased local production and, hopefully, lower prices over time. Additionally, if government policies continue to support agricultural development, we might see a slow but steady decline in food inflation in the coming months.
The journey of food prices from January to September 2024 has been anything but smooth. From sharp increases early in the year to a tentative mid-year stabilisation and a mixed outcome by September, it’s clear that the forces affecting food prices are complex.
While there’s no easy solution to the challenges, understanding the trends and factors behind these price changes gives us a clearer picture of where we stand—and what we can do to manage better. As we brace ourselves for the rest of the year, we can only hope for a little more stability in our markets, and perhaps a few more naira left in our pockets.
