News in brief:
– The United States dairy industry faces a decline in milk production for the fourth consecutive month, with November’s decrease at 0.5%, year-on-year.
– This drop is attributed to a shrinking dairy herd, with 44,000 fewer cows compared to the previous year, signaling tightening supplies.
The United States dairy industry is grappling with declining cow numbers, as the latest Milk Production Report reveals a continued downward trend for the last four months.
November saw milk production fall by 0.5% compared to the same month in 2022, totaling 17.3 billion pounds. This decline follows October’s revised production decrease of 0.6%.
According to analysts, a closer look reveals that farmers are also reporting a shrinking dairy herd. The number of milk cows across the 24 major producing states stood at 8.90 million in November. This represents a 26,000 drop from the previous year’s number and 9,000 fewer than in October, the preceding month. On a national level, there are 44,000 fewer cows compared to November 2022.
President of Ever.Ag Insights, a market intelligence and advisory company for the dairy industry, Phil Plourd, interprets this data as a sign of tightening supplies. He stated that with cow numbers down 44,000 year-over-year, it’s hard to see milk production getting stronger over the near-to-intermediate-term.
California and New Mexico were the hardest hit, experiencing significant production drops due to declining cow numbers. On the other hand, states like South Dakota, Michigan, and Arizona exhibited positive trends, with both cow numbers and production rising.
Meantime, California, despite witnessing a statewide decline, is expected to see production stabilise as they move past adverse weather conditions. However, experts wonder whether the Southwest can regain its footing in the coming months.
In Europe, cow numbers have become a point of contention with the EU urging countries to reduce herds to cut methane emissions. Ireland, whose beef production contributes between 25% to 30% of its entire agricultural output, has been particularly engaged in a showdown with farmers over the issue of culling herds. Arguments on the other side argue that reducing herds could lead to lesser dairy production, something the US is currently battling.
However, opposing views include a call for more sustainable ways of producing dairy like improving efficiency and even lab-grown dairy.
