News in brief:
– NiMet’s 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction forecasts varied rainfall patterns across Nigeria, with early onset in coastal states and delays in central and northern regions.
– Farmers are advised to prepare for shorter planting windows in some areas and potential flooding risks in others.
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has released its 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), showing varied rainfall commencement and cessation dates.
The earliest onset of rainfall is expected between February 23 and March 10, 2025, over the coastal states of Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and parts of Delta. Meanwhile, the rainy season will begin between March and April in the southern states, including Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Ekiti, Edo, Cross River, Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo, Abia, and Anambra.
For the central states (Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Taraba, and the FCT), rainfall is expected between April and May. In the northern states (Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, Bauchi, Yobe, and Borno), the rainy season is predicted to commence between early June and July.
in summary, farmers in Plateau, Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa, and Kwara should brace for delayed rainfall, while an early onset is expected in Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Anambra, and parts of Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Lagos, Edo, Enugu, Imo, and Ebonyi.
Rainy season cessation dates
The rainy season is expected to end between October 6 and December 17, 2025. The northern states (Sokoto, Zamfara, and Katsina) will experience the earliest cessation from October 6, while Kano, Jigawa, Yobe, Bauchi, Borno, Kebbi, Kaduna, Niger, Gombe, and Adamawa will see the rains end between October 14 and October 30.
In the central states, cessation will occur from November 7 to November 23, while in the southern states, including Lagos, Rivers, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Cross River, rainfall is expected to end between November 23 and December 17. Delayed cessation is anticipated in Kaduna, Nasarawa, Benue, Lagos, Kwara, Taraba, Oyo, Ogun, Cross River, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu.
Rainy season length and rainfall volume
The rainy season will last 250 to 290 days in the southernmost regions such as Lagos, Delta, Bayelsa, Cross River, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom. Inland southern states like Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, Osun, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu will have 200 to 250 rainy days. The central states can expect 150 to 200 days, while the northern states will have 110 to 150 days of rainfall.
Total annual rainfall is predicted to range from 405 mm in the far north to 3010 mm in the coastal states. The northern states (Borno, Yobe, Sokoto, and Katsina) will likely receive less than 685 mm, while central states (Niger, Kwara, Plateau, Nasarawa, Benue, and the FCT) will get 970 mm to 1500 mm. Coastal states (Rivers, Bayelsa, Cross River, and Akwa Ibom) will see the highest rainfall of 2700 mm to 3010 mm.
What this means for agriculture stakeholders in Nigeria
Farmers and agribusiness owners across Nigeria should prepare for a varied rainy season in 2025, as weather predictions indicate differing onset and cessation dates across the country. The forecast highlights early, normal, and delayed rainfall onset in different regions, affecting planting and harvesting schedules.
For example, major agriculture-producing states like Benue get only a small window of production, especially small-holder farmers who rely heavily on rain-fed farming. Jigawa, another food powerhouse, will experience early rainy cessation. These details point to the critical need for irrigation to extend the planting window.
In addition, Bayelsa is expected to see rain for up to 290 days in 2025, posing the risk of flooding. This should alert farmers and agribusiness owners to put mitigation steps in place to minimise losses that may arise.
