News in Brief:
– New study predicts severe pest impacts on Nigerian maize yields, causing significant economic losses for farmers and threatening food security.
– Researchers stress the need for improved early warning systems, targeted pest management strategies, and data-driven risk maps.
A recent study published in the Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment journal has revealed that pests, such as the fall armyworm and grubs, pose a significantly greater threat to maize cultivation in Nigeria than previously understood, and may even surpass the direct impacts of climate change.
Maize is a cornerstone of Nigerian food security, providing essential nutrition and supporting livelihoods.
Researchers from the Leibniz Center for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) utilised advanced agro-ecosystem modeling to simulate the evolution of pest risks under various climatic conditions from 2021 to 2100.
The models, which incorporated climate projections, yield data, and environmental factors, predict potential yield losses ranging from 18% to 75%. These losses translate to economic burdens of $72 to $675 per hectare, a substantial blow to subsistence-level smallholder farmers.
According to Dr Esther Shupel Ibrahim, the lead author, the models demonstrated that pests like the fall armyworm and grubs can exert a more substantial impact on maize yields than droughts and floods. She called for proactive measures and enhanced monitoring to ensure sustainable maize production.
Optimal sowing times and early warning systems
The research highlighted the importance of sowing times, indicating that early planting increases pest-related losses, while mid- or late-season sowing reduces risks. Moreover, it underscored the potential of the data to improve early warning systems.
Currently, many Nigerian farmers rely on traditional knowledge due to limited access to scientific forecasts. Meanwhile, new simulations can be used to provide more accurate sowing recommendations and enable proactive pest management.
The introduction of seven-day risk maps, which utilise precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture data, could revolutionise pest control by allowing for targeted pesticide application, reducing costs, and minimising environmental impact.
However, to ensure these findings benefit farmers, information should be disseminated through agricultural extension services, government programmes, and local organisations. Digital solutions, such as SMS alerts and agronomic apps, could also facilitate real-time communication.
Nigerian farmers face a multitude of challenges, including climate change, population growth, conflicts, and the spread of pests and diseases. Many operate in difficult conditions, managing crops on poor soils and in volatile climates.
Regional implications and perception shifts
The findings of this study extend beyond Nigeria, potentially benefiting other sub-Saharan African regions with similar agricultural systems. Experts say a shift in perception is necessary.
Many communities do not link agricultural challenges to environmental factors. Raising awareness about climate change and promoting sustainable pest management, along with improving access to early warning systems, can bridge traditional knowledge with modern science and support policy development for climate adaptation and food security in the region.
